Revenues down 42% to $148m. EBITDA down 58% to $65.6m.
EPS dps 56% to $0.45. Cash up 4% to $327.3m. ARPU down 42% to $1,044 and
customer acquisition cost also down 30% to $1,079. Dividend also down 56%
to $0.2734/share. Importantly Q2 is 23% up on Q1 in terms of new
customers and 11% up in terms of active customers, while non EEA countries
is now 48% of revenue. While trading is reported to be in line with
expectation the outlook is optimistic and the company announces a $50m
share buy back
No change given trading is reported to be in line.
$180m pre tax anticipated for 2019 which is cents 123 EPS. New 60% payout
policy may bring dividend expectation down from 80c to 74c.
PER 5.6. Yield 11%
The shares are likely to move better as the dust settles post the
regulatory changes. H1 has also been a time of low liquidity in markets
generally so we can anticipate some more upbeat news over the next 6
months. Probably a good trade from this level.
H&T Group Plc – H1
Share Price 341p
Mkt Cap £135m
Conflict Disclosure: No Holding
Results PBT up 8% to £6.8m but operating profit pre
non-recurring costs up 16% to £8.7m. EPS 15p. Net debt £11.6m. DPS up 7%
to 4.7p. The 65 Moneyshop stores have all been integrated. Pledge book was
up 12.4% while the net revenue yield was up 3.8%. Scrap sales were down
due to the delay in some diamond sales. Retail was up 12% while personal
loan book was down 5.3%. Average gold price was 5% higher over the
period. Outlook is “excited” and trading is reported to be in line
Estimates 9% revenue growth expected for the full year and 18%
PBT growth to £15.9m which is 33.5p EPS.
Valuation PER 10.2X yield 3.2% ROE improving to 11.8%
while the price/Book is 1.3X
Conclusion For the first time for many years the story is
all there for this one. The stores have expanded introducing a
little more gearing while the gold price is looking promising as it
reaches new highs. It is up 26% since April. The only disappointment is
the personal lending isn’t growing. I keep getting excited but these
numbers read underwhelmingly. I think it could just be the next 6
months that get exciting. But I have said that before. It does keep
moving to the right.
interesting chart from Bloomberg shows the growth in market share of the
ETF tracking funds since 2014.
: Perhaps Standard Life Aberdeen should look at
launching an ETF portfolio. It gets harder to differentiate as fund
managers get larger. In this new world only the specialist of the scaled
can survive. But the scaled need to be offering cheap products such as
ETF’s. Standard Life Aberdeen are still calling themselves value
investors. Which is the wrong style in a low interest rate world. As
well as the product being more expensive than ETF’s.
– Market Manipulation RNS
Disclosure: No Holding
Burford has found evidence of market manipulation after a week end when
Gotham City publ;ished its concerns over the answers given on the Burford
analyst call which included concerns that Burford stated they “are
lawyers; therefore we are trustworthy”. I am tempted to do a twitter poll
on who agrees with that statement. They believe that spoofing and layering
may have occurred. And that share price declines were not caused by actual
The shares remain at 1.4X book value, which equates to
a PER of 6.8 and yield 1.4%
It looks like instead of investing in other third party litigation cases
they are now intent on investing in their own, thereby rendering the
shares almost uninvestable. Especially when the directors have bought
stock recently thereby intending to capitalise on this apparent market
Hargreaves results yesterday the June reporting is complete so the flow
trophy can be awarded for the best flows in the quarter to June. The
picture is shown on the charts below.
can step up onto the stage for the second quarter in a row having snatched
the trophy back from Polar 6 months ago. The other award can be
collected later by Miton.
Group – Acquisition
Disclosure: No Holding
Hermes FX is acquired for £2m in cash. The founder of Hermes is joining
Equals group and subscribing for 1m shares at the current share price of
117.5p/share. With revenue of £1.8m and PBT of £0.6m this represents
1.1X revenue and 3.3X PBT. Nice price. The company provides FX to a
predominantly corporate client base.
With £10m PBT forecast for Dec 19 and £14m the
following year this looks to be c. 5% earnings enhancing.
FY 19 PER 18.4 before earnings enhancement. The company
had cash of £7.9m at Dec 18.
Very useful acquisition. This company will do well and for those that
can’t bring themselves to pay 27X for AlphaFX it is a good alternative.
Burford are cross. Their shares fell 19% yesterday. Muddy Waters’ tweet
below is alleged to be the culprit.
Statement from Burford this morning says the company has $400m cash
and cash equivalents at 5 August. They state that they are investigating
whether market manipulation has occurred and will litigate if this has
happened. They say they are “strongly suspicious”. They say companies are
largely powerless to intervene in this dynamic.
Conclusion In my view their 85% ROIC is overstated relative to LCM and
Manolete who make 138% and 180% ROE. However it is still a strong ROE.
Just they will need more equity if they continue to grow. They seem
to protest too much. Lets see the 8 am report (if indeed it is Burford)
but I doubt they are insolvent. Threatening litigation on an RNS will not
endear them to the market.
Life Aberdeen – H1 Results
Disclosure: No Holding
The heart sinks when results come in 4 parts. Adjusted
PBT down 10% to £280m but EPS up9% to 8.9p. Net outflows
2.9% and AUMA up 5% to £577.5bn. Action has been taken to deliver £234m of
the targeted £350m cost savings. Core operating profit was down 45% to
£142m while share of associates and joint ventures profits almost doubled
to £116m. The PBT also includes £22m from increases in the value of seed
investments etc. Surplus capital is £900m. The Lloyds settlement is
disclosed today which includes a one off payment of £140m which will be
taken to P&L in H2. The outlook refers to investing for growth and the
strong balance sheet
Full year PBT expectation shows as £600m on Sharepad
but with the £140m from Lloyds to come in H2 this will be higher on a one
off basis. Going forward forecasts seem to be anticipating 4% PBT growth.
EV/AUM 1.02%. PER 14X yield 7.7%. Price/NAV
The shares are down 16% over the last 12 months.This company feels like it
is where Man Group was in 2015 when it was acquiring its way out of its
core product becoming dated. It will take a long time to turn round
this asset manager and the temptation is for investors to buy value too
early. It is still too early.
Over the last 12 years the disparity of equity market returns is remarkable:
(note: total return,
in US $)
in Germany mortgage backed bond yields have now gone negative. Which are
now cheaper than US treasury debt.
It is hard to see yields increasing by the reversal of
government policy. But I fancy we could have a different kind of liquidity
crisis as the markets way of finding an end to this situation which would
increase bond yields and reduce equity markets.
ICAP – H1 Results
Disclosure: No Holding
Revenue up 1.3% to £922m. Operating profit up 1.9% to £158m. Margin ticks
up from 17% to 17.1%. PBT down 3.6% to £134m and EPS 19.2p. Global Broking
was down 6% while the growth businesses of Institutional Services and Data
& Analytics aren’t yet big enough to move the needle. Net debt is
modest at £80m. The statement confirms that another £75m of
integration savings will be achieved in H2 and the outlook says they are
“deep into the process of designing a strategy and so they are confident.
H2 profit estimates are currently lower than H1 which
suggests scope to increase FY estimates
FY 19 PER 9.3X yield 6%
If there was an award for the most boring set of results TP ICAP would be
a strong contender. And in current markets boring looks strangely