Hits: 14

26 March 2020

Ince Group

Share Price 25.5p

Mkt Cap £17.5m

Conflict Disclosure: No Holding

  • News The board has concluded that the pandemic is having a significant effect on the UK business. Cancels dividend and withdraws guidance.
  • Valuation The £31m NAV will have increased by £14m for the February placing at 45p/share. Intangibles of £53m make NTAV modestly negative.

15 January 2020

News

  • Ince Group raises £12m by Accelerated Book Build at 45p/share almost 50% below the 89p share price. There is also a £2m staff offer. For general working capital purposes. The net debt at 30 September was £10.4m. H1 2019 EBIT was £4.4m.

28 November 2019

Ince Group Plc  – H1 Results 

Share Price 120p

Mkt Cap £44m

Conflict Disclosure: No Holding

  • Results Revenue up 125% to £45.3m and PBT £4m. EPS 6.3p with 2p DPS. Net debt was £10.4m. Organic growth reported at 5.3%. Outlook is confident and the £100m revenue target is reiterated. The company has 378 fee earners representing revenue/head in H1 of £119k (2018 £122k). The adjusted PBT number of £4m however is £10.7m in statutory terms less the £7.1m profit share and acquisition costs of £461k. This implies it includes the £3.9m negative goodwill on acquisition.
  • Estimates. Full year estimates assume £94m revenue, below the £100m target and £11m PBT.
  • Valuation. PER 5X Yield 6.3%. 0.5X revenue
  • Conclusion On a PER basis the shares are cheap but the gain on bargain purchase is not a repeatable profit. The PAT attributable to shareholders is £1.9m which includes a one off bargain purchase gain. I can’t trust the profitability of the trading business.

8 November 2019

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Ince Group – Trading Update

Share Price 121p

Mkt Cap £45m

Conflict Disclosure: No Holding

  • Update Performance is expected to be in line with expectation for the full year to March 2020. H1 Results are expected on 28 November and the company notes the greater part of its revenues are traditionally in H2.
  • Estimates The “in line” statement suggests no change though the H2 weighting is never a good look.
  • Valuation PER 5X, yield 6.2%. 0.5X EV/Revenue
  • Conclusion The valuation suggests the market doesn’t trust this acquisitive business which is more diverse than comparators. If this valuation is sustained the company may lose its acquisition currency and end up going private.  Both that outcome or a re-rating are positive outcomes for shareholders.