STJ/OPM

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Australia services PMI had a good bounce back in June. 53.2 was highest reading since Nov 18

 St James Place – Trading Update

Share Price 940p

Mkt Cap £5,046m

Conflict Disclosure: No Holding

  • Update Net inflows 3.6% for the 5 months to 31 May. May continued the trend with 0.6% net inflows in the months. Markets have added 2.7% in the 5 months to May, all of which came during May
  • Estimates AUM are up 6.3% over the first 5 months of the year while forecasts are predicated on flat revenues over the course of 2020. 
  • Valuation PE 22X. Yield 4.7%.
  • Conclusion The shares were 1193 in February and are 22% lower while the AUM are up 6%. The marketing model is intact. Doubtless they will regain their highs.

OnePM – Trading Update

Share Price 23p

Mkt Cap £20.3m

Conflict Disclosure: No Holding

  • Update “Satisfactory” trading performance for the year to May. New business origination of £147m was only written £54m to own book with most of it being brokered. Of the £125m loan book only 20% has been granted forbearance. Revenue is expected to decline 8% to £29.1m. PBT £3m after a “one off” bad debt provision of £2.1m, while write offs continued at the same level as the prior year (2%). Borrowing facilities are £180m. Dividend decision deferred.
  • Estimates Original forecast for May 20 was for £7.9m PBT until withdrawn on 26 March.
  • Valuation NAV £55m of which TNAV is £27m. Normal world ROE is 10%
  • Conclusion As an SME lender this has been seen as one of the most COVID exposed companies. It now seems possible that results could normalise. And conceivably we will be asking what all the panic was about during COVID. That would mean the shares would more than double in that event.

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